6 things for the coming year and ‘Associate Status’.

The signals are already out via Delors that that the EU will offer the UK an ‘associate status’ within the EU, one assumes this will pretend to be about retaining UK sovereignty and independence from the Euro and banking union while remaining a full trade partner. No doubt this is what Cameron has been waiting for, so he can announce it in his much delayed big EU speech. With that in mind here are my predictions for 2013.

(Please note I have no special information, they are educated guesses, so don’t bet the farm on them!)

1 - Cameron’s speech will initially win him a lot of support among lukewarm Eurosceptics both in and out of parliament and it will defuse the issue for a while, but it won’t last. The EU is not going to give up any real power, and associate status will eventually be seen a ploy to create the worst case scenario for us – one where the UK is out of the EU halls of power and has even less influence than now while we remain in thrall to every regulation and obligation, past and future.

2 – As a result UKIP will lose ground but later in the year they will steadily increase their appeal to 25%-30%. They will do this by not just collecting Tory EU rebels but by appealing to Labour voters and blue collar workers, especially in the North, by stressing old fashioned, traditional, social values and a sensible approach to political correctness, free speech and personal responsibilities and freedoms.  The Conservatives may be out of touch with the shires but arguably less so than New Labour has become out of touch with their traditional roots. Many hard working Labour supporters are as traditional as rural Tories in their values but these people have nowhere at all to go electorally except Respect or the BNP.  Losing the ‘right wing’ label and getting support for an ‘attitude’ rather than specific left or right policies won’t get UKIP in power as a serious grown up party, a nostalgia party makes no real sense, but will massively increase their protest vote appeal, which is what they need at the moment.

3 - There will be a massive backlash against the ‘green agenda’ and especially subsidies for wind and solar power. This will increase as people see the US economy (apparently – yes I know it’s all debt nonsense really) growing with cheap power while ours is not. When the government’s carbon tax starts to bite next spring and manufacturing starts to move abroad even the media will catch on.  Meanwhile the carbon tax itself will never be repealed; it will hang forever round our necks as a stealth tax on our economy.

4 - The row about gay marriage will be a serious millstone for Cameron for months. When the Muslim community fully understands its ramifications we will see an unlikely situation of Muslim protest being supported by traditional Christians.

5 - The EU and the Euro will continue to exist, the internal stresses being hidden by fancy footwork and behind the scenes financial shenanigans. It’s possible that Greece and Spain may also be offered temporary ‘associate status’ while they sort themselves out.

6 - There will be a determined attempt to remove Cameron as Conservative leader before the end of the year. If he survives there will be another, and successful, one after the European elections in 2014. Motorists will become a vocal group because they will be hit with new driving licence rules, threats of tolls and more MOT changes to add to the recent SORN and insurance regulations. The religious communities will not forgive him for gay marriage. Media and public will realize the EU maneuvers were a sham. Energy will be overpriced. The economy will not improve. Changes to benefits will (despite their good intent) be disastrously mishandled. Another 6 months with the economy bouncing along the bottom amid dissent and U turns will discredit him to the extent action has to be taken.